December 2025 closed the year with a very specific kind of market: not a frenzy, not a freeze, but a reset. For condo buyers across the GTA that matters because resets are when pricing becomes more rational, listings become more negotiable, and good units stop feeling like a lottery.TRREB’s December snapshot confirms the tone. The GTA posted 3,697 sales (down 8.9% YoY) and 5,299 new listings (up 1.8% YoY). The average selling price was $1,006,735 (down 5.1% YoY), while the MLS HPI Composite benchmark fell 6.3% YoY. This is a meaningful affordability improvement versus the recent past. Nationally, CREA reported December sales down 2.7% month-over-month, with the MLS HPI down 0.3% MoM and down 4% YoY. We can see a softer finish to the year across Canada, not just Ontario.&nbsp;What matters most is that buyers finally have more choice. Across TRREB regions in December, condo apartments accounted for 1,029 sales and an average price around $628,029 (with year-over-year softness reported broadly across the segment). That number matters less as a “price point” and more as a signal: the condo market has repriced enough that end-users can re-enter: first-time buyers, downsizers, and renters tired of playing annual rent roulette.This moment of opportunity is being shaped by three forces moving at the same time:- Rates are no longer the only story.&nbsp;A big chunk of demand sat on the sidelines waiting for “one more cut.” But market psychology changes once buyers believe we’re near the bottom of the rate cycle, even if rates aren’t “low” in the old sense.This is where economist Benjamin Tal’s framing is useful (without making it Vancouver-specific): think 2026 as a bridge/transition year, and 2027 as the more visible recovery phase if confidence stabilizes and supply tightens.&nbsp;- The pipeline is quietly thinning, especially for new condos.Here’s the part many buyers underestimate: today’s weak pre-construction environment tends to become tomorrow’s resale competition problem. Urbanation’s year-end 2025 survey shows new condo apartment sales in the GTHA fell to 1,599 units in 2025, the lowest annual total since 1991. &nbsp;And even more important: Urbanation-linked reporting points to completions expected to fall to ~22,066 in 2026 and ~14,366 in 2027 after a very high completion period.&nbsp;CIBC/Urbanation analysis also highlights the same structural reality: what doesn’t launch today won’t be delivered later, and condo completions are expected to trend down after 2026.&nbsp;- More importantly, Canada’s population growth engine doesn’t shut off.&nbsp;Even with policy adjustments, Canada’s federal plan indicates overall permanent resident admissions stabilizing at 380,000 per year from 2026–2028.&nbsp; In the GTA, population pressure doesn’t translate into instant price spikes, but it does create durable underlying demand for well-located, livable condos.Let’s talk about micro markets. Real estate is local, so here’s a practical, buyer-oriented way to think about the GTA condo map right now:Downtown Toronto&nbsp;(incl. Yonge–Bloor/Yorkville, Bloor Walk,&nbsp;Waterfront, “near-subway” pockets)This is where buyers often get the most selection and the widest mix of product (newer glass towers, older nice concrete buildings with better noise isolation, boutique mid-rises). In a reset market, the advantage is simple: you can be picky. Not just on price, but on layout, light, fees, reserve strength, and noise exposure. In downtown, “value” is often found in livability (a real den + proper bedroom separation) more than in flashy amenities.&nbsp;Scarborough (transit-adjacent value lanes)Scarborough tends to reward buyers who prioritize space and practicality. If your goal is first ownership without stretching, look for buildings where maintenance fees are high but explainable (utilities included, strong reserve, major work already done) rather than “low but mysterious.”Etobicoke (the coveted hybrid of green spaces and city access, including Eringate, Centennial Park area, Markland Wood, and west-end pockets near High Park)Etobicoke’s condo market often sits in a sweet spot: city access combined with calmer living. Buyers here can sometimes get better square footage per dollar than the core while staying connected via TTC/Mimico/GO corridors (depending on the pocket).Markham (end-user demand and quality bias)Markham remains one of the GTA areas where pricing discipline holds a bit longer, which is why negotiation often feels less dramatic than in more investor-heavy pockets. In December, Markham still posted a 97% selling price to listing price ratio, which TRREB-style market summaries flag as “competition still exists,” even as that ratio pulled back versus November, signaling improving negotiation room. Here,&nbsp;the reset shows up more in terms, such as status certificate timelines, closing flexibility, and price realism on units that are not perfectly positioned or perfectly updated.Oakville&nbsp;(when leverage shows up, it’s meaningful)Oakville’s condo opportunity&nbsp;is one of the clearer “buyer leverage” signals in the December data. It was flagged among the most buyer-favorable areas with a sales to new listings ratio of 30.4% and months of inventory at 5.6, which typically supports wider negotiating room and more workable conditions.&nbsp;The premium does not disappear, but in a softer environment the gap between asking and selling can widen, and buyers can often negotiate better terms on closing dates and conditions.While no one can promise a straight –up surge date, the setup for upward pressure is real:<ul><li style="text-align:justify;">prices and benchmarks softened through 2025, according to TRREB&nbsp;</li><li style="text-align:justify;">national activity ended 2025 on a softer note, according to&nbsp;CREA&nbsp;</li><li style="text-align:justify;">the pre-construction pipeline has contracted sharply&nbsp;</li><li style="text-align:justify;">population targets remain substantial&nbsp;</li></ul>That combination typically creates a market where the best-value units get absorbed first, and once confidence flips, competition returns unevenly — starting in the most livable buildings and locations.Many buyers have stayed on the sidelines, persuaded by the idea that prices will keep drifting down indefinitely. But housing markets don’t move in straight lines: once rates stabilize and buyers adjust to “the new normal,” demand tends to return, often faster than the headlines suggest.If you’ve been waiting for a “perfect” time to buy, 2026 is offering something rarer: a normal market with leverage. For many first-time buyers, that’s not just an opportunity, it’s the opening that makes ownership possible.

GTA Condos: The Buyer Window Is Open, But Not Forever

GTA condo market update using Dec 2025 TRREB and CREA data: buyer leverage, key areas, and why 2026 could be a strong entry window.

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