This past week, Prime Minister Mark Carney visited China, Canada’s first prime-ministerial trip to Beijing in eight years, framing the moment as a “recalibration” of the relationship. The messaging has been optimistic: new access, eased friction, and a step toward diversifying beyond an overly U.S.-dependent trade posture. It’s worth separating headline momentum from policy reality. Today let’s talk about some possible outcomes and how a stronger relationship with China could create a stronger Canada.&nbsp;Canada and China have moved toward lowering retaliatory trade barriers that escalated after the previous government’s earlier decision to impose steep tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, and China’s subsequent countermeasures targeting Canadian agriculture.Under the new agreement-in-principle, China is expected to reduce tariffs on Canadian canola seed to a combined rate of roughly 15% by March 1, 2026, down from about 84%. Canada, for its part, will allow up to 49,000 Chinese EVs per year into the Canadian market at the most-favored-nation tariff rate (6.1%). That is&nbsp;a sharp rollback from the prior policy stance.Call it a deal if you like. But practically, it’s closer to a reset button being pressed, useful and overdue, rather than a brand-new trade architecture. We are in fact back to where we started. It is very generous to call that a “deal”. But why ruin a good story with facts.Additionally, Mark Carney reported that China committed to removing visa requirements for Canadian travelers, citing that Canada is China’s 7th greatest contributor to tourism. It will be interesting to see if this will be made reciprocal and if Chinese travelers will be afforded the same rights to Canada.PM Carney has described Chinese EVs as affordable and energy-efficient. That’s hard to dispute. What’s more important is the policy math behind the scenes. Canada’s government remains committed to reaching a controversial 100% zero-emission new light-duty vehicle sales by 2035, with interim benchmarks. That trajectory collides with multiple stubborn constraints, but mainly EV affordability and supply. As consumer budgets tighten, lower-cost vehicles tend to win, especially when governments set the direction of travel.&nbsp;What also remains unchallenged, is that in order for Canada to reach its goal of eliminating the sale of ICE cars over the next decade, it has no choice but to allow mass imports of EVs. Unless the government removes its aggressive deadline, the lower-cost imports, mainly from China, could take an outsized share of the market.These results of the trip have created mixed feelings from different parts of Canada. In Saskatchewan, Premier Scott Moe stated that the tariff reductions on canola are good news. He believes this new agreement will bring Saskatchewan farmers significant relief.&nbsp;In Ontario, Doug Ford is less thrilled about the electric vehicle agreement. He voiced his concerns for Ontario’s already struggling auto sector and said the removal of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles will hurt Ontario’s economy and lead to more job loss. Premier Ford claims that he was not consulted on the EV tariff changes, which poses a serious concern regarding the policymaking processes.&nbsp;According to CBC, the 49,000 electric vehicles affected by the new deal only represent 3% of all cars sold in Canada (because Canadians generally don’t like them or want them). However, they represent 20% of the EVs, and that number will climb dramatically over the years. Combined with dwindling affordability in Canada, the plan to ban ICE cars by 2035, combined with this Carney’s deal will be devastating.&nbsp;Notably, US President, Donald Trump told reporters that Canada’s agreements with China are a good thing and that “if you can get a deal with China, you should do that.” Trump’s approval of Canada’s effort comes on the heels of his statement that USMCA, the trade agreement between Canada, the US, and Mexico, is “irrelevant” to him. He wants to capture what we export to the US in his domestic production. If that kills Canada’s auto industry, so be it.Here’s another part that’s getting far less attention than tariffs and headlines: EVs don’t end at the dealership. They end as large-format lithium-ion batteries that must be stored, transported, processed, and recycled safely. Canada is not ready at scale. Consumers need to remember that lithium-ion batteries are an environmental trade-off, not a magic eraser.&nbsp;EVs can reduce tailpipe emissions, but lithium-ion batteries carry significant upstream and downstream impact. This isn’t an argument against EVs. It’s an argument against pretending that “electrification” automatically equals “clean,” without building the full lifecycle infrastructure. Canada’s weak spot remains end-of-life handling, logistics, and disposal capacity.&nbsp;We have battery stewardship and extended producer responsibility (EPR) structures in several jurisdictions, Ontario included, for consumer batteries. But EV batteries are a different category: heavy, high-voltage, logistically complex, and expensive to transport and process.The safety problem is already here, especially in dense housing.&nbsp;Lithium-ion batteries don’t just create future waste issues. They create present-day fire risk when damaged, misused, or improperly disposed. Fires linked to lithium-ion batteries have been rising in municipal waste streams and multi-unit residential settings, including incidents that involve e-bikes, scooters, tools, and consumer devices.For real estate, that translates into real and practical questions, such as condo corporations updating rules and safe-storage guidance for e-mobility devices; garbage and waste contractors being equipped for battery incidents, insurance policies and building risk frameworks preparedness, EV charging retrofits being planned alongside fire-safety, ventilation, and emergency response protocols in the buildings. If Canada is serious about electrification, it needs to be equally serious about the unglamorous side: collection systems, safe storage, trained logistics, recycling capacity, and clear national coordination.&nbsp;Canada’s visit to China has both emphasized the importance of strengthening our relationship with China and importance of recovering from the trade war with the US by building trade relations elsewhere. This said, it would be shortsighted to turn away from the fantastic opportunity that the US market represents. As anyone that has ever run a business will tell you, while neither is easy, it is easier to keep a customer than get a new one. The first priority of any successful business is to keep its existing customers happy.Businesses have worked on diversifying trade forever. They are always looking for new opportunities. It is not easy. If our government wants to recalibrate, they should first think about the US relationship which will be here long after President Trump’s term ends, and balance it with greater exposure to China. Create a win-win. They also need to bring balance to seeking domestic prosperity against managing the global environment (over which we have little to no control). They need to drop the radical green net zero outcomes and accept a realistic, sustainable and humane approach to growing the economy. Chinese people have made a wonderful contribution to Canada. Let us all work together to make a greater North America. And if we must shift the global order, let’s do so for the benefit of the people.

Canada Shifts Gears with China: A Stronger Relationship Ahead

Carney’s China visit signals a Canada–China reset with tariff rollbacks, EV access, and a push to diversify trade while managing U.S. dependence.

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