The recent federal election ushered in a new government under Mark Carney, triggering political aftershocks in Alberta. Echoing earlier sentiments from Quebec, Alberta’s legislature moved swiftly to amend Bill 54, the Election Statutes Amendment Act, effectively lowering the threshold for a citizen-led referendum on separation.The message? Alberta is once again flirting with the idea of leaving Canada.With the heightened political tension between Alberta and some other provinces in Canada, notably Quebec and Ontario, Alberta clearly thinks they are distinct enough culturally, economically, and politically to justify standing alone as nation. They may have a point.There are many Albertans, however, who greatly oppose this course of action. Many First Nations have already spoken out against the separation of Alberta from Canada. Global News cites several Alberta chiefs who explain that large portions of Alberta are governed by treaties between specific First Nations and the federal government. These are held in trust by the federal government for the benefit of those Treaty First Nations. They say that the provincial government has no claim to these lands. These treaties predate Alberta’s membership in confederation. CBC states that these treaties are agreements to share the land, not surrender it. First Nations representatives are against any attempt for the Alberta government to violate these treaties by claiming the land and then leaving Canada. Additionally, major tourist destinations like Banff and Jasper would pose a barrier, as these national parks are crown land owned by the federal government. All great points, but each issue is solvable.There is also concern from citizens about losing their Canada Pension Plan benefits. This leaves us to realize two things; one that they have no idea how small that benefit is, and two that they don’t understand that splitting pension fund asserts has been done successful several times before. As a referendum vote gets closer to becoming a reality, expect these “fear based” arguments to become more frequent.This is not the first time that a Canadian province has threatened to leave our union. Quebec has a long history of separatist sentiment. In every first-year constitutional law class across Canada, law students study the Reference Re Secession of Quebec Case. Here, the Supreme Court unanimously held that a province cannot unilaterally leave Canada. By unilaterally, the court means that a province cannot separate from Canada without negotiation or consultation with other provinces and the federal government. To do so otherwise would be unconstitutional. If the province held a referendum and the majority voted in favour of secession, the federal government’s and other provinces’ duty to negotiate would be triggered.When asked about Alberta’s potential separation from Canada, Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves Francois Blanchet seemed uncertain. He stated that to separate from Canada, a province must demonstrate a unique cultural identity to define itself as a nation. For Alberta, specifically, he said he is “not certain that oil and gas qualifies to define a culture.” However, any Canadians are aware of the political and cultural differences between Alberta and say Ontario, British Columbia, and Nova Scotia. In many ways it makes us realize that Canada is in fact a very unlikely union. Each province is unique. While we will stop short of suggesting that any province is more American than Canadian, it is clear that there are stark differences between all provinces culturally.How will the housing market look if Alberta separates? We know that Alberta is the province with the most affordable homes with respect to bigger Canadian cities. Calgary and Edmonton, for example, have an average home price of $646,743 and $470,447, compared to $1,107,463 and $1,211,073 in Toronto and Vancouver. While not the goal of the Alberta referendum, these prices would make assimilation into the US easier as the price gap between the country and the province is smaller.CTV says the economic cons outweigh any pros. They say that any federal government agency like the RCMP will need to be replaced by Alberta using their own funding. Any currency and passport changes, as well as new international border control, among many, many other things will cost Alberta billions and decades to complete, according to CTV. Lost in CTV’s argument is that Alberta already pays much more than it receives through federal transfer payments. They are also forced to accept federal policies that are a direct threat to their economic survival.As seen in the last Canadian federal election, Canada is increasingly becoming a country divided. Alberta separation is just one example. The people in rural Canada are seeing less and less benefit in policies that seem focused on the large urban centres, certain provinces, and select demographics. Young people have been abandoned by the federal government and are increasingly under attack through its new policies. The federal vote seems increasingly split between those that look to the government for their support and comfort, and those that would like to try and take care of themselves.&nbsp;Is Alberta on a path to independence? Not likely—at least not in the short term. But the conversation highlights the deepening divides across the country. For now, Alberta remains a part of Canada. But for real estate watchers and political analysts alike, this unfolding story is worth watching.

Alberta’s Separation Stir: Political Drama or Real Estate Opportunity?

Will Alberta break from Canada? Amid talk of separation, affordable housing may be its trump card. Is now the time to invest in Alberta real estate?

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